CQ: Parties See High Stakes in Omaha House Race

Emma Dumain, CQ Staff
September 4, 2009

The 2010 House race in Nebraska’s 2nd District would draw national attention just because of the expected high-profile matchup between six-term Republican Rep. Lee Terry and Democratic state Sen. Tom White.

But the contest has implications that extend beyond the 2010 election in the district, which includes Omaha and its suburbs. It will settle a debate over about the recent Democratic advance in the longtime Republican stronghold: whether it was a fluke — that’s the GOP position — or is a sign, as Democrats contend, of a profound change in 2nd District politics.

The stage for 2010 was set by the 2008 campaign. While 48 states grant all of their electoral votes to the statewide winner for president, Nebraska and Maine allocate some of theirs based on the outcomes in their congressional districts. The campaign of Democrat Barack Obama , determined to compete for every possible electoral vote, put on a vigorous push to capture the 2nd District — and succeeded by a 1 percentage-point margin over Republican John McCain, who claimed Nebraska’s other four electoral votes.

The big Obama voter turnout push coincided with efforts by local Democrats to oust Terry from the 2nd District seat. This venture did not succeed, but it was close: Terry won by a 4 percentage-point margin in a rematch with Democratic lawyer Jim Esch, whom he had defeated by a more comfortable 9-point margin in 2006.

These key contests showed signs of serious Republican slippage from years past. Terry, in each of his four previous races from 1998 to 2004, had exceeded 60 percent of the vote. And 61 percent of the district’s presidential vote in 2004 went to Republican incumbent George W. Bush.

Republicans experienced further trouble this past spring, while their opponents’ optimism swelled, with the election of a Democratic mayor in Omaha and a Democratic takeover of the city council for the first time since the 1980s.

Obama-Omaha Connection

Democrats in the 2nd District refute Republican claims that the energy of Obama’s campaign was alone responsible for the party’s recent successes. But it is hard to deny Obama’s influence.

The 2nd District seemed an unlikely target for any Democratic presidential candidate. The last time a Democrat won any portion of Nebraska for president was in 1964, when the state went along with 43 others in providing a landslide win for President Lyndon B. Johnson.

Yet history showed it was not impossible for Democrats to win in Omaha, by far Nebraska’s biggest city and home to many blue-collar households and most of the state’s black residents. Two Democrats held the 2nd District seat in the not-distant past: John J. Cavanaugh from 1978 to 1981 and Peter Hoagland from 1989 to 1995.

So the Obama campaign decided to open three field offices there in the fall of 2008, and the gamble paid off.

“The makeup of the district has changed dramatically within the past two cycles, and it’s still changing,” said Jim Rogers, executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party. “You can see the Democratic growth in the district with Obama’s election here, but also in the pretty major municipal election in Omaha.”

The voter registration drive led by the Obama team also produced results that could benefit the Democrats going forward. By Election Day in Douglas County, which includes Omaha and the bulk of the district’s population, registered Democratic voters outnumbered registered Republican voters for the first time in 14 years.

It is this legacy that White’s campaign must capitalize on in 2010 if he hopes to win, said Randall Adkins, a politics professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.

“The lasting effect of Obama was not the electoral vote he won, but those he registered to vote here,” Adkins said. “Obama came and organized the Democrats in a way they had not been organized before. He mobilized new voters.”

But Adkins pointed out that it will be a challenge, given the down-ballot dropoff in 2008. A number of voters who went to the polls for Obama did not also vote for Democratic House nominee Esch.

Republicans cite that fact as part of their case that the 2008 race is not necessarily a harbinger of another difficult contest for Terry in 2010.

“With all the Obama excitement, with all the money they had to spend here, they were gambling they could pull Jim Esch in,” said Dave Boomer, Terry’s campaign manager. “The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) came in here and started targeting Terry and supporting Esch. But Lee Terry still won the election against that tide.”

The Race Begins

The DCCC is back this time on White’s behalf, joining the Nebraska Democratic Party in urging him to make his exploratory campaign official. They hope that White — who opposes abortion, positions himself as a fiscally conservative Democrat, and has experience in public office — will serve as a weightier challenger to Terry than was Esch.

“Tom White has a strong record of leadership and independence that is exciting voters . . . and causing great concerns for Lee Terry and Nebraska Republicans,” said Gabby Adler, the DCCC’s Midwestern regional press secretary. “Like Barack Obama , Tom White will build a broad base of support across the district to carry him to victory.”

Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson, whose record as a centrist Democrat has helped him win statewide races, hosted a fundraiser for White on Sept. 2. White also has the endorsement of Democrat Bob Kerrey, a former governor and U.S. senator from Nebraska.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has also stepped in, recently placing Terry in its pool of potentially vulnerable incumbents eligible for extra financial and logistical support from the national party in the months ahead.

The Nebraska Republican Party is firing up its campaign against White as well. Days after White’s announcement of his exploratory committee, state Republican Chairman Mark Fahleson announced the establishment of a “Report Tom White” hotline.

Things are heating up quickly, yet Hal Daub, a Republican who held the 2nd District seat from 1981 to 1989 and most recently lost the 2009 election for mayor of Omaha, does not attribute early Republican campaigning to anxiety about White. Rather, he said, it is simply the reflection of the fact that neither Terry nor the state Republican Party is taking anything for granted.

“2008 was a wake-up call and a big lesson for us,” said Daub. “We’ve been lazy, but we won’t be lazy anymore. We’re working harder than ever before. We are engaged in a voter registration effort here, and we’re engaged in a very tactically savvy, well financed and volunteer-driven plan to help Lee Terry.”

Boomer admits that the campaigning on both sides is starting earlier than in years past, and that Terry is already “working his you-know-what off.”

Yet no Republican operative is willing to betray a major concern about the 2010 race.

“Lee Terry ’s working hard to keep his seat, but he’s not nervous,” said Daub. “He is confident, but he doesn’t want to take a chance that the bloom hasn’t come off the Obama rose yet. I think it has, but he’s said to me, ‘Maybe that’s a premature assessment. I’m going to keep on at it.’”

CQ Politics rates the race Leans Republican.