NNN: Looking To 2010, National GOP Already Knows Lee Terry's In A Lot Of Trouble

Kyle Michaelis, New Nebraska Network
July 24, 2009

It wasn't until September 18th of last year - with less than seven weeks to go - that the Cook Political Report downgraded 2nd District Republican Congressman Lee Terry's chances from "likely" to "leaning" in the 2008 election. Now facing the prospect of a top-tier challenge from Democratic State Senator Tom White in 2010, Terry already finds himself in that same weakening position a full 15 months before the election.

But, it's not just political analysts who are looking at this match-up and thinking Terry's in a lot of trouble. The National Republican Congressional Committee has just added Terry to its Patriot Program for protecting the most endangered House Republicans.

Roll Call reports:

The National Republican Congressional Committee on Thursday will name 15 more Members to its "Patriot" program to boost the party's most vulnerable incumbents in 2010, bringing its membership to 25.

NRCC Incumbent Retention Chairman Mike Rogers (Mich.) is scheduled to present the list of Members - all of whom have reached specific fundraising and campaign goals - at the weekly GOP leadership and NRCC meeting Thursday morning.

According to a list obtained by Roll Call, the 15 new Members named to the program are: Mike Rogers (Ala.), Mary Bono Mack (Calif.), Bill Posey (Fla.), Tom Rooney (Fla.), Mario Diaz-Balart (Fla.), Lynn Jenkins (Kan.), John Fleming (La.), Bill Cassidy (La.), Michele Bachmann (Minn.), Blaine Luetkemeyer (Mo.), Lee Terry (Neb.), Scott Garrett (N.J.), Dean Heller (Nev.), Charlie Dent (Pa.) and Cynthia Lummis (Wyo.).

This is a marked difference from 2008 when Terry spent six months begging for "any national help" until two weeks before the election when the NRCC finally swooped in with half a million dollars in negative attack ads (1, 2). Terry's now lowered the bar for himself sufficiently that the NRCC knows he's going to need all the help he can get heading into 2010 - especially against a candidate like Tom White. You can bet that attack machine is already revving up and ready to go.

Still, the one thing that doesn't hold up about the NRCC's targeting Terry is their stating that he had to reach "specific fundraising and campaign goals" to qualify for their Patriot Program. This make it sound as if they're somehow honoring Terry rather than recognizing his desperation. But, actual fundraising numbers for the quarter ended June 30th tell the tale and clearly demonstrate just how weak a position Terry's really in.

After picking up $100,000 in debt in the closing weeks of the 2008 election, Terry's campaign has raised less than $1,700 more than it's spent so far in the 2010 cycle. This leaves Terry's campaign with only $191,758 in current cash on hand. Contrast that with 1st District Rep. Jeff Fortenberry's $494,571 and 3rd District Rep. Adrian Smith's $316,971 in cash on hand for the same period. And, keep in mind that Terry's spent more time in Congress - with more time to build connections - than the two of them combined.

Any way you look at it, Terry's fundraising has been far from impressive or imposing. In fact, these numbers raise serious questions about his level of support and indicate just how low of expectations there are for Terry's abilities. Even suggesting that Terry's met the NRCC's goals means those goals were set for a weak Republican candidate running another poor campaign.